000
FXUS61 KBGM 161417
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1017 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will give the region partly
to mostly sunny skies today with highs in the upper 40s to lower
50s. A cold front will move through the region Wednesday
ushering in unseasonably cold air. Rain showers will change to
snow showers Wednesday night which will linger into Thursday
morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 am update...
Quiet weather today with lake effect clouds in Oneida and
Steuben counties shifting to the north through the day. No
significant changes made to the forecast...

Previous Discussion...
Surface cold front has dropped well south of the region early
this morning ending the showery activity. Westerly flow behind
this boundary may produce some isolated to scattered rain
showers southeast of Lake Ontario through mid morning then lift
north as the low level flow backs. High pressure in the Ohio
valley will give much of the region partly to mostly sunny skies
except for the above mentioned area where clouds will linger
until midday. Highs will range in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Tonight...A sharpening upper level trough will approach the
area later tonight along with a surface cold front. After
midnight the flow becomes favorable for lake enhanced rain
showers in northern Oneida County as 850mb temperatures across
the lake will be around minus 2C. Elsewhere just chance POPs
for the northern/western forecast area due to frontal
forcing and moisture. Overnight lows will range in the middle
30s to lower 40s.

Wednesday...Surface cold front will pass through the region
during the mid morning to early afternoon hours. Outside of the
lake enhanced precipitation just chance/slight chance POPs will
be advertised. Across the northern forecast area a lake enhanced
band of rain showers are expected with likely/categorical POPs
forecast. By late afternoon flow within the steering layer will
be around 290 degrees as 850mb temperatures over Lake Ontario
drop to minus 5C. Through the daylight hours just rain is
expected as boundary layer temperatures are too warm to support
snow. Highs will range in the middle 40s to around 50 with
temperatures expected to fall by early/mid afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM Update...
Strong cold air advection will continue Wednesday night with
gusty northwesterly winds mixing down in an unstable boundary
layer. Gusts could easily reach 35 mph for a time in the
evening. The flow will veer WNW to NW, as 850mb temperatures
plummet to 8-10 degrees below zero Celsius. Moisture will become
rather shallow yet the temperature differential and profile
will easily be enough for a lake response of snow showers
Wednesday night-early Thursday. With the winds/bands shifting
and narrowing as moisture becomes shallow, along with warm
ground, amounts will be limited but this will indeed be the
first accumulating snow of the season for higher elevations of
Central New York. The hills of Southern Onondaga-Cayuga-
Madison-Cortland-Chenango counties could get around an inch or
so. At least skiff will be even be possible for higher
elevations of eastern Twin Tiers-western Catskills. If lift
actually went through the dendritic growth layer, instead of
just barely touching it, higher amounts could be realized.
However, as rain changes to snow Wednesday evening - first at
higher elevations and then working its way down - it could be a
bit convective/briefly heavy given the instability within the
lowest 8 kft agl and an isolated lightning strike cannot be
ruled out. By dawn Thursday, temperatures reach lows of upper
20s-mid 30s, which could include the first freezing temperatures
for many locations that have not already experienced it yet.

Thursday will be a brisk day with highs of only upper 30s mid
40s, and lingering snow showers/flurries mixing with cold
rain/sprinkles towards midday while diminishing as dewpoints
crash into the 20s. Northwest wind will still manage to gust
15-20 mph or so. With the mixing of low dewpoints, at least
partial sunshine will be experienced with time, especially
Northeast Pennsylvania.

High pressure will build in from the southwest Thursday night,
along with slight ridging aloft, to provide for a quiet night
with lows again in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
430 AM Update...
Though briefly a little milder Friday, overall pattern remains
cool and unsettled through the weekend into early next week.
Forecast adjusted towards latest multi-model blend with little
change compared to prior numbers overall.

Previous discussion...
Friday: Dry under brief upper level ridging and surface high
pressure in the mid Atlantic region. Highs on Friday will
rebound nicely into the middle to upper 50s under a moderating
southwest flow.

Friday night/Saturday: The next cold front approaches the area
late Friday night then passes through on Saturday. Will continue
to show likely rain chances on Saturday across the north and
chance for the central and southern locations. Highs on Saturday
will be in the lower to middle 50s.

Saturday through Monday: A low pressure system moving into
eastern Canada drags a cold front through the area, with rain
showers becoming more likely for the daytime hours of Saturday.
This starts to taper off Saturday evening as the front moves
southeast of the area. However, any lingering showers may begin
to mix in with some snow Saturday night into Sunday,
particularly for our northernmost and higher-elevation spots.
Some lake enhancement is also possible overnight into Sunday as
winds shift to the N/NW. Mainly lake-effect rain showers
continue into Sunday, changing over to snow and a rain/snow mix
overnight into Monday. Our best chance at any real dry period
would be Monday afternoon, with winds shifting to the SW ahead
of the next system and ending any lake effect showers. Expect
temps in the upper 40s/low 50s Saturday afternoon before colder
air works in for Sunday and Monday. Morning lows Sunday and
Monday are expected to be in the 30s and even upper 20s, with
highs mainly in the low/mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Lake clouds
will keep BKN ceilings over KRME/KSYR around 4k feet through
early afternoon then scatter out. Through mid morning BKN
ceilings are possible through mid morning at KITH/KELM around
4K feet. Late tonight a cold front will approach the region
bringing lowering clouds especially to the northern terminals
after 06Z. Toward 12Z low VFR conditions are forecast at
KRME/KSYR with a mid deck across KITH/KELM/KBGM.

Westerly winds becoming southwest this afternoon at 8-12 knots
with some gusts at 15-20 knots at KSYR/KELM/KBGM. Southwest
winds overnight at 5-10 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday into Thursday...Rain and/or snow showers with
restrictive conditions.

Thursday night/Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday night to Saturday...Additional chances for restrictions
in rain and/or snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...HLC/MJM/MDP
AVIATION...RRM

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion