000
FXUS61 KBGM 220244
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
944 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will usher warmer temperatures and rain showers into
NY and PA tonight, before a cold front Friday morning brings
sharply colder air and gusty winds to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM Update...

A couple batches of showers are impacting our area this evening
with weak ripples passing through. The first has largely pushed
east to the western Catskills, with our next round across
central NY, moving towards the I-81 corridor. The main changes
with this update are just minor adjustments to account for
current spatial extent of these showers.

Warmer air continues to stream into the area with healthy
south/southwest flow tonight, allowing temperatures to continue
to rise a couple degrees more ahead of an approaching cold
front. This will begin to push into western NY before sunrise,
and will track through central NY and NE PA during the late
morning/afternoon hours with non- diurnal temperatures falling
into the 30s behind the passing front. Showers will also be
ongoing overnight through the morning, largely wrapping up from
west to east behind the front. However, gusty winds shifting to
the west/northwest will keep in chances for showers downwind of
lake Ontario. These should start to mix in with snow Friday
afternoon, finally changing over entirely to snow into the
evening.

As mentioned, winds will be gusty Friday, increasing to around
15-20 mph. Gusts up to 20-25 mph will be possible area-wide,
with stronger gusts up to 30-35 mph near Syracuse and the Finger
Lakes, as well as the higher terrain.

Friday night, lake effect snow showers wrap up as calmer winds
start to shift more to the southwest. Temperatures drop back
into the 20s with skies gradually clearing from south to north
as lake clouds erode.



&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
312 pm update...

Main forecast concerns in the short term remain focused on the
low pressure system expected to track from the Tennessee
Valley/srn Appalachian Mtns northeast off the NJ/New England
coast late Saturday into Sunday evening. A wintry mix will
spread south to north through the region during this time with
fairly mild temperatures as well.

Weather conditions Saturday morning into the early afternoon
will be quiet as high pressure dominates the region. The high
will shift quickly off the coast by the late afternoon as an
upper level trough and associated surface low rotate ewd across
KY/TN through the srn mid-Atlantic region later Saturday into
Saturday night. As this occurs a weak push of warm/moist air
will lift north into ern PA and ern NY and interact with weak
to moderate forcing aloft to produce a shield of light-moderate
precipitation over the southeastern portions of the forecast
area.

There is still quite a bit of model uncertainty with regard to the
track of the low...with some guidance placing the track well off the
coast and keeping most of the area dry. At this time however,
consensus brushes at least the Poconos and srn Catskills with around
a quarter to a half of an inch of qpf. Most of this will fall
in the form of rain/snow/sleet with only a small amount of
freezing rain as well. Thermal profiles are still in question as
of this afternoon...but it does appear to be more of a
"rain/snow with pockets of sleet" event, with the threat for
freezing rain on the lower end.

The low pressure will wrap up and deepen even more off the mid/nrn
New England coast later Sunday and Sunday night with the bulk of the
significant precip out of the area and some wrap-around cold
air triggering a few lake enhance rain/snow showers into early
Monday morning around the Syracuse/Utica area. The cold air on
the back side of the system will not be cold enough for all snow
with 850mb temps only around -4 to -5C.

Snowfall amounts this weekend will be challenging to nail down
with this system given the potential for a mix with rain and/or
sleet at times. The fact that it will be a low-end qpf event
lean toward lower snowfall amounts as well. Temperatures during
the day this weekend will be in the 30s and 40s...with
overnight lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Previous Discussion...
Lake-enhanced showers should quickly end early Monday as
surface-850 mb ridging builds in from the west. Forecast highs
in the lower to mid 40s will be near climo.

A southerly return flow develops toward midweek as high pressure
progresses off the eastern seaboard and the next storm system moves
into the Midwest. This will lead to a modest warming trend Tuesday
and Thursday with highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s (5-10F
above normal).  The next chance for precip looks to be Tuesday night
into Wednesday as the low cuts to our northwest (into the Great
Lakes region) and a cold front approaches from the west. A mainly
rain event is favored with this setup. Breezy southerly winds are
possible Tuesday night-Wednesday.

The chance for lake-effect snow showers returns toward the end of
the period as northwest flow ushers in colder air.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue so far tonight, with a broken cloud
deck at around 7000 to 9000 ft. Spotty rain showers have already
begun moving through central NY, though these are not expected
to lead to any visibility restrictions. Lower clouds develop
overnight ahead of an approaching cold front, with ceilings
dropping to MVFR and fuel alternate after 9Z.

In addition, a low level jet will cause LLWS conditions at the
majority of our terminals by 3Z, continuing through early
Friday.

Rain showers continue after sunrise, lingering into the
afternoon mainly at SYR and RME where a mix with snow will be
possible after 16Z. MVFR to fuel alternate ceilings will
continue across most terminals due to lake clouds - with the
exceptions of ELM and AVP, where clouds lift to VFR and start to
break up by 18Z.


Outlook...

Friday night...Snow showers/flurries could bring restrictions,
mainly the NY terminals. KAVP perhaps an MVFR ceiling.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night through Sunday...System with snow-rain mix may
pass through the region with associated restrictions.

Monday and Tuesday...mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...HLC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...JRK
AVIATION...HLC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion