000 FXUS61 KBGM 091859 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 259 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Much cooler temperatures tonight are expected, with less humidity in the air than previous nights. Seasonable temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday. A cold Canadian airmass moves in Friday with cool and calm weather expected through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 245 Pm Update The cold front is currently making its way through Pike and Luzerne counties. A few thunderstorms have popped up over Pike county but have already dissipated and moved east of the area. Behind the front, a broad stratocumulus cloud shield that has covered the CWA for most of the day is beginning to dissipate as the surface warms and dry air moves in, starting from the Southern Tier and slowly working north. Lake effect clouds and light showers/sprinkles have developed over Onondaga and Oneida counties. 850mb temps are currently around 12C, with lake temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s. This is enough of a temperature difference to generate lake clouds and spotty sprinkles. 850 temperatures tonight will drop to around 9C, which should be enough to generate some isolated showers overnight. Slight chance PoPs were included across the far northern Finger Lakes into Oneida county for most of the overnight hours, dying off after sunrise as the winds shifts. Overnight lows are going to be in the mid to upper 50s with the Mohawk and Wyoming Valleys staying in the low 60s. Dewpoints are also going to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Combine this very low dewpoint depression with light winds and a moist boundary layer and fog is expected to develop with more widespread coverage than the normal river valley fog we have been getting the past few nights. Fog should reach into the southern Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley. Fog dissipates by 8am and a beautiful day is in store for most of the CWA. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are expected across the region and with dewpoints in the upper 50s, it will feel very comfortable. There is a chance for some rain showers along our far SE counties as a shortwave trough rides along the cold front that has stalled south of the area. A surface low will begin to develop as it moves eastward across eastern PA and southern NJ, but it is expected to be too far south to bring high rain chances to our CWA. A few showers may develop over Luzerne, Pike and Sullivan counties during the mid to late afternoon but overall a nice day is expected for the area. Wednesday night lows will be in the mid to upper 50s again, with a chance for valley fog. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 2 PM Update... Overall quieter and cooler weather is on tap for the end of the week, with a slight bump in the road on Thursday. A stalled out frontal boundary will be strung out along the Mid- Atlantic and southern New England coasts, with much drier air to its northwest over most of NY/PA. Some of the moisture/maritime air could seep into the eastern slopes of the Catskills and Poconos Thursday morning as a weak wave develops along the front, but precip looks to stay to the east. A shortwave trough moving across southern Ontario and Quebec will drop a secondary cold front through our area from the northwest, but will encounter a rather dry atmosphere both near the surface and aloft. Kept PoPs just high enough for a mentionable shower chance mainly across NE PA and the Catskills with the frontal passage Thursday afternoon. Cooler and much drier air filters in from the northwest Thursday night, and if winds can diminish enough, and high level clouds stay at bay (lower and mid levels look bone dry), we could set up for a rather chilly night Thursday night into Friday morning, with lows dropping into the 40s in places. Friday will see temperatures rise only into the 70s. Friday night could set up to be even a little cooler with lighter winds expected. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 2 PM Update... Chilly start Saturday morning with high pressure overhead, and a very dry airmass in place. Temperatures look to slowly rise back up to near seasonal normals as low level flow shifts back around to the south. We look to stay precip-free through at least Sunday, with an upper level trough digging in across the eastern Great Lakes early next week, and increasing precip chances. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The cold front has pushed through AVP, clearing all terminals in the area. In its wake, a lake effect cloud deck is bringing MVFR conditions to ITH/ELM/BGM, with RME and SYR bouncing in and out of MVFR as the lake effect clouds move overhead. This cloud deck will last through the afternoon across the area, but as the surface warms and dry air in the mid levels moves in, MVFR ceilings should lift to VFR between 20-22z across all terminals. Overnight, fog is expected to develop, bringing IFR conditions to BGM/ELM/ITH/RME. The highest confidence in fog formation is at ELM and visibility has been reduced to LIFR during the early morning hours. There is a signal from guidance for fog at SYR, but confidence was not high enough to drop conditions to IFR. MVFR visibility was introduced into the TAF and a better idea on fog formation should come to light during the next TAF set. We are seeing some lake effect showers pop up near SYR and RME and slight chances for showers are expected to continue through the night. Confidence in the showers impacting the terminals is very low so it was not mentioned in the TAFs. Outlook... Midday Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR in drying pattern. Cannot rule out brief valley fog KELM early Thursday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC NEAR TERM...JTC SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...JTC
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