000
FXUS61 KBGM 091859
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
259 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler temperatures tonight are expected, with less
humidity in the air than previous nights. Seasonable
temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday. A cold
Canadian airmass moves in Friday with cool and calm weather
expected through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
245 Pm Update

The cold front is currently making its way through Pike and
Luzerne counties. A few thunderstorms have popped up over Pike
county but have already dissipated and moved east of the area.
Behind the front, a broad stratocumulus cloud shield that has
covered the CWA for most of the day is beginning to dissipate as
the surface warms and dry air moves in, starting from the
Southern Tier and slowly working north. Lake effect clouds and
light showers/sprinkles have developed over Onondaga and Oneida
counties. 850mb temps are currently around 12C, with lake
temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s. This is enough of a
temperature difference to generate lake clouds and spotty
sprinkles. 850 temperatures tonight will drop to around 9C,
which should be enough to generate some isolated showers
overnight. Slight chance PoPs were included across the far
northern Finger Lakes into Oneida county for most of the
overnight hours, dying off after sunrise as the winds shifts.

Overnight lows are going to be in the mid to upper 50s with the
Mohawk and Wyoming Valleys staying in the low 60s. Dewpoints are
also going to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Combine this very
low dewpoint depression with light winds and a moist boundary
layer and fog is expected to develop with more widespread
coverage than the normal river valley fog we have been getting
the past few nights. Fog should reach into the southern Finger
Lakes and Mohawk Valley.

Fog dissipates by 8am and a beautiful day is in store for most
of the CWA. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are expected
across the region and with dewpoints in the upper 50s, it will
feel very comfortable. There is a chance for some rain showers
along our far SE counties as a shortwave trough rides along the
cold front that has stalled south of the area. A surface low
will begin to develop as it moves eastward across eastern PA and
southern NJ, but it is expected to be too far south to bring
high rain chances to our CWA. A few showers may develop over
Luzerne, Pike and Sullivan counties during the mid to late
afternoon but overall a nice day is expected for the area.

Wednesday night lows will be in the mid to upper 50s again, with
a chance for valley fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
2 PM Update...

Overall quieter and cooler weather is on tap for the
end of the week, with a slight bump in the road on Thursday. A
stalled out frontal boundary will be strung out along the Mid-
Atlantic and southern New England coasts, with much drier air to its
northwest over most of NY/PA. Some of the moisture/maritime air
could seep into the eastern slopes of the Catskills and Poconos
Thursday morning as a weak wave develops along the front, but precip
looks to stay to the east. A shortwave trough moving across southern
Ontario and Quebec will drop a secondary cold front through our area
from the northwest, but will encounter a rather dry atmosphere both
near the surface and aloft. Kept PoPs just high enough for a
mentionable shower chance mainly across NE PA and the Catskills with
the frontal passage Thursday afternoon.

Cooler and much drier air filters in from the northwest Thursday
night, and if winds can diminish enough, and high level clouds stay
at bay (lower and mid levels look bone dry), we could set up for a
rather chilly night Thursday night into Friday morning, with lows
dropping into the 40s in places. Friday will see temperatures rise
only into the 70s. Friday night could set up to be even a little
cooler with lighter winds expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM Update...

Chilly start Saturday morning with high pressure overhead, and
a very dry airmass in place. Temperatures look to slowly rise
back up to near seasonal normals as low level flow shifts back
around to the south. We look to stay precip-free through at
least Sunday, with an upper level trough digging in across the
eastern Great Lakes early next week, and increasing precip
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front has pushed through AVP, clearing all terminals in
the area. In its wake, a lake effect cloud deck is bringing MVFR
conditions to ITH/ELM/BGM, with RME and SYR bouncing in and out
of MVFR as the lake effect clouds move overhead. This cloud deck
will last through the afternoon across the area, but as the
surface warms and dry air in the mid levels moves in, MVFR
ceilings should lift to VFR between 20-22z across all terminals.

Overnight, fog is expected to develop, bringing IFR conditions
to BGM/ELM/ITH/RME. The highest confidence in fog formation is
at ELM and visibility has been reduced to LIFR during the early
morning hours. There is a signal from guidance for fog at SYR,
but confidence was not high enough to drop conditions to IFR.
MVFR visibility was introduced into the TAF and a better idea on
fog formation should come to light during the next TAF set.

We are seeing some lake effect showers pop up near SYR and RME
and slight chances for showers are expected to continue through
the night. Confidence in the showers impacting the terminals is
very low so it was not mentioned in the TAFs.


Outlook...


Midday Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR in drying
pattern. Cannot rule out brief valley fog KELM early Thursday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...JTC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion