FXUS61 KBGM 031330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
930 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

High pressure will remain over the region through mid-week.
However, a fairly strong cold front will move through Friday and
Saturday with some rain followed by a blast of more fall like


930 AM Update...
Little change to the previous forecast for this update.

Previous Discussion...
Only minor changes with the sunrise update, see previous
discussion below.

High pressure will remain over the region through Wednesday. Patchy
morning fog should burn off fairly quick after sunrise. By this
afternoon, some mixing should result in dewpoints a few degrees
lower than most model guidance, leaning on the typically favored
RGEM here. Sunny and clear skies with light winds will result in
fairly large temperature spreads as well with modeled boundary layer
temperatures suggesting most locations getting into the low 80`s,
near or at record highs.

Clear skies and light winds again tonight, favorable for
radiational cooling and patchy fog formation once again.
Temperatures should fall back into the 50`s tonight.
Temperatures warm slightly on Wednesday with near record highs
possible along with another sunny day. Used the RGEM once again
to best capture afternoon mixing with the dewpoints.


300 AM Forecast...

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern
through the period. The center of the ridge will be east of the
CWA, bringing southerly flow across the region. Temps will be
warm, but not as warm as Wednesday as highs will top out in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Winds are expected to increase through
the day Thursday as isobars pile up from an approaching trough.
By Thursday evening, winds across areas west of I-81 should see
winds 15-18kts with gusts up to 25kts, lasting through Thursday
night. Strong WAA accompanying these winds will keep overnight
lows extremely warm for this time of year, only falling into
the upper 50s to mid 60s.


330 AM Update...

Guidance is showing a big weather pattern change coming this
weekend. The last bit of summer weather will be replaced by the
first real fall like weather.

The ridge slides eastward as a very deep trough digs into the
central US on Friday. SSW flow ahead of the trough will bring
widespread rain showers and a slight chance for isolated
thunderstorms to the region Friday with highs in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. The trough will push a cold front through the area
sometime Saturday, but timing is still uncertain as some
guidance shows Saturday morning, while others show Saturday
afternoon. This will impact highs and precip amounts on
Saturday. Because of the uncertainty, NBM guidance was used as
the basis of the forecast. After the frontal passage on
Saturday, guidance is still up in the air on how the upper level
trough will evolve. Deterministic guidance widely varies, as it
could continue to sit over the Great Lakes or lift NE into
Canada. Ensemble guidance shows a slow lift to the NNE this
weekend. Most guidance does show cold air remaining in the
region no matter what the trough does, with highs into early
next week in the upper 40s to low 50s. Flow is expected to be
WNW, with exact direction depending on how the trough evolves.
This cold air and flow over the lakes brings lake effect showers
across the region through the period, with areas along and
north of the northern Finger Lakes seeing the best chance for


Fog has worked into KELM, KBGM and KAVP at sunrise, this fog
should burn off between 12-14Z this morning. VFR through the
remainder of the TAF period till another round of fog overnight.


Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR expected; high
confidence. Restrictions due to valley fog each morning most
likely at ELM (moderate to high confidence).

Friday through Saturday...Restrictions possible as a system
brings chances for rain showers and a slight chance of


High temperatures may be within a few degrees of record values
today 10/3 with the potential for near or record highs on
Wednesday 10/4.

10/3 (Today) Avoca-84 in 1919: current forecast high is 83
Binghamton-81 in 1951: current forecast high is 80
Syracuse-86 in 1951: current forecast high is 84

10/4 (Wed)
Avoca-84 in 2007: current forecast high is 86
Binghamton-78 in 2017: current forecast high is 82
Syracuse-86 in 1951: current forecast high is 87






NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion

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