000
FXUS61 KBGM 231113
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
713 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will cross the region today with showers and
possibly thunderstorms. An upper low will be overhead for
Tuesday bringing a few more showers. Dry weather will return for
Wednesday, before another front with showers moves through
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6 am update...
Just minor changes as twin tier valleys have fallen to around 60
while SYR stays in the 70s. timing of clouds and showers looks
good.

330 AM UPDATE...
A mild early morning for the autumnal equinox. A south to
southwest flow has set up ahead of a weak cold front. Mid and
high clouds are across CNY while showers are in southeast
Ontario. The showers will move in this morning. Several rounds
of showers will push into the area today. With temperatures in
the mid and upper 70s to low 80s south and dewpoints in the 60s
there will be weak low level instability. Wind shear is 40 kts.
The best chance of thunderstorms will be this afternoon into
early evening just ahead of the front. Basin average rainfall
amounts will be mostly under half an inch. The best forcing will
be in CNY so that`s where the rainfall amounts will be highest.

Late evening a break in the showers somewhat before better low
level moisture returns from the northwest. The moisture isn`t
deep and under 10k feet. This will be on the back side of a
closed upper level low moving east across southeast Ontario into
Maine late Tuesday. Temperatures are cold enough so that some
lake enhancement is likely. The majority of the rain showers
will be from the eastern Finger Lakes into upper Susquehanna
Region to Tug Hill. Rain amounts will be light. The showers will
lift northeast out of the area early Tuesday evening.

Temperatures haven`t changed much with lows tonight in the low
and mid 50s. Tuesday will be cooler but still near average.
Highs in the 60s to around 70 for Scranton area. Coldest in CNY
across the hilltops of the north branch Susquehanna Region to
the Catskills and Tug Hill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 am update

High pressure/ridging over the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday. After a cool start to the day on Wednesday, high
pressure slides east and warm SW flow develops by the afternoon.
Should see highs climbing well into the 70s. Cold front
approaches from the west on Wednesday night with an increase in
clouds and maybe rainfall will reach our far western zones by
12Z Thursday. However, the bulk of the model guidance keeps the
highest chance for rain until after 12Z Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
335 am update...

Guidance is in good agreement that pushes through the region on
Thursday, bringing our next chance for showers however, high
pressure quickly builds back in behind the front Thursday night.
Model solutions then diverge for next weekend. Blend of model
guidance keep PoPs fairly low for now, due to the uncertainty as
we will likely be on southern edge of the Westerlies and along the
periphery of a broad ridge centered over the Eastern U.S. Looks
more like a Summer-time pattern than the end of September. Any
perturbations coming through the flow should be able to kick off
thunderstorms as plenty of moisture and instability will be
available in this pattern. Temperatures will be well above
normal as well through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 am update...
ELM still has VLIFR fog now despite the low level wind shear.
This should dissipate by 12z. LLWS at KRME until 14z before
southwest surface winds pick up this morning. By 16z all sites
will have SW winds at 10 kts with higher gusts to around 20.

Generally VFR throughout the TAF period. Around 13z ceilings
lower from northwest to southeast to around 6k ft.  Scattered
to isolated showers move in around 18z. A thunderstorm is a
possibility too. A few of the showers and thunderstorms could
cause brief restrictions in heavy rain especially SYR/RME.
Monday evening low clouds exit leaving mid and high clouds. West
winds at 10 kts. Late tonight winds lower to 5 kts. Cigs lower
to MVFR.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Restrictions possible with scattered showers.

Wednesday...VFR conditions likely. Patchy morning fog at KELM.

Thursday...Some showers may lead to brief restrictions across
the area.

Friday...Mainly VFR, but some patchy morning fog possible at
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...TAC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion