000
FXUS61 KBGM 271055
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
655 AM EDT Mon May 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures can be expected today
as a cold front continues to move south of the region and high
pressure builds in from Canada. High pressure retreats to our
north and east on Tuesday as warm front lifts northward into the
area. This front will move back to the south late Tuesday after
an area of low pressure passes through. The chance for showers
and storms will persist through the end of the week with the
front stalled nearby.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
640 AM Update... Latest GOES-16 satellite imagery shows the
river valley fog is quickly dissipating over the past hour. Only
minor changes were included (mainly to account for the
inhomogeneities in temperatures/dewpoints early this morning)
in the latest forecast update.

340 AM Update...
The cold front has moved south of the area last night and was
located near the I-95 Mid-Atlantic corridor early this morning.
A light NW flow behind the front has advected drier air into the
region. The potential for patchy radiational fog early this
morning is highly confined to near the PA/NY border- where skies
have cleared overnight and the ground was wet following
yesterday`s showers and storms.

Luckily the weather will be cooperative for the various outdoor
festivities planned this Memorial Day thanks to high pressure
building in from Canada. Dry conditions and near normal
temperatures in the low to mid 70s is in store. Northerly flow
off Lake Ontario will bring in some clouds to CNY but there
should still be more sun than clouds in general today.

Low pressure will track eastward across the Upper Midwest late
tonight and through the region on Tuesday. Southerly flow ahead of
the system will cause the aforementioned boundary to lift back
northward as a warm front. Consequentially, the break from the wet
will be short lived with showers returning late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Initial band of showers could become widespread for a
period Tuesday morning since the isentropic lift and low-level jet
dynamics looks robust/organized. There may be a break behind it
toward midday before additional convection develops along the front
during peak heating. There is plenty of spread seen in the 00Z HREF
regarding how far north convection will be able to become surface
based south of the warm front and how much will the boundary layer
be able to destabilize in the warm sector given the earlier rain and
persistent cloud cover during the day. This will be important for
determining where the risk for severe thunderstorms sets up.
Following the latest D2 outlook from SPC, the greatest potential for
this to happen will be across the Southern Tier of NY and NEPA
where a slight risk for severe storms exists. Started with the
NBM for forecast temperatures Tuesday and were then blended
with the 00Z NAM/NAM Nest to enhance the SW to NE temperature
gradient that is likely to setup over the region. Forecast
highs range from the mid 50s in the western Mohawk Valley to
the mid 70s in NEPA and Chemung Valley-Steuben County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A warm frontal boundary looks to slowly move northward through the
region Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Quite a bit of
uncertainty on how far northward this front gets is still present.
NE PA and the Southern Tier should get into the warm sector by
Wednesday afternoon. Timing differences within the modeling further
north range from Wednesday afternoon to only briefly Thursday
afternoon with the warm frontal passage. A cold front is then
expected to push through the region sometime Thursday night. Plenty
of moisture will be drawn into our region with enough lift for a few
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. In terms of anything strong to
severe it still looks conditional dependent on frontal location and
timing. Our region has the best chance to be in the warm sector
Thursday and have instability advect into the region. 0-6 km
bulk shear values look very favorable for thunderstorms
organizing into a squall line ahead of the cold front with a
wind threat if the instability is realized. Highs should range
through the 70`s and 80`s with lows in the 50`s and 60`s with
these values dependent on shower coverage and the location of
the warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some uncertainty is still present with a fair number of ensembles
slower with the departing mid-level trough on Friday. If this
feature is slower moving out a few showers would occur. The GFS and
CMC are slower with this but the ECMWF has trended slightly more
progressive. With that said, we will maintain a slight chance of
showers that does not show up on the point and click web forecast.
High pressure looks to build in temporally before our next cold
front and rain/ thunderstorm chance on Sunday. Generally looking at
lows in the 50`s and highs in the 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any brief restrictions from fog/stratus at ELM should end before
the start of the 12Z TAFs. Otherwise VFR today and tonight. A
light/variable wind early this morning will become N-NW 5-10 kt
late this morning and afternoon. Winds become light and shift
out of the NE or E tonight.

Showers overspread the terminals from W to E within a few hours
of sunrise Tuesday. CIGs should lower to MVFR shortly after the
precip arrives Tuesday morning. Fuel-alternate to perhaps IFR
restrictions possible Tuesday afternoon north of a warm front
(most likely at RME). Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop during the afternoon hours but timing and location still
highly uncertain at this point.

Outlook...

Tuesday night Through Thursday... Mainly VFR but some
restrictions from scattered showers and storms at times.

Friday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...JRK

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion