023
FXUS61 KBGM 090150
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
950 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will become more widespread tonight and will
continue right on through into most of Friday night. Some
lingering showers will remain possible Saturday morning. High
pressure then builds into the region and will bring an extended
period of warm and dry weather into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
945 PM Update...

Similarly to the previous update, made some minor PoP
adjustments, reducing them across western parts of the area in
the near term, while PoPs were raised across portions of NE PA
and the southern Catskills based on current conditions. Thunder
was removed from the CWA for the rest of the night with stable
conditions in place. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

655 PM Update...

Some minor PoP adjustments were made based on current obs and
also reduced the chance for thunder across the southern
Catskills and Poconos the rest of the evening. The most notable
update at this time was lowering temperatures this evening for
areas west of I-81 where hourly temps were running several
degrees warmer than current readings.

340 PM Update...

Slow moving and training convective showers and thunderstorms along
a stationary front remain over the Poconos and Catskills with an
increased potential of flash flooding this afternoon and early
evening. While daytime heating did lead to some instability in this
region, severe storms are not expected though some stronger gusts
with these storms cannot be ruled out. There will likely be a lull
in shower activity during the late evening hours, but showers then
gradually become more widespread late tonight as a surface low
develops over the Mid-Atlantic.

An upper low will swing through PA/NY on Friday and force the
surface low northward along the coast. Rain will then continue to
spread north and west with chances for moderate showers during the
daytime hours, especially along and east of I-81. This system will
continue to move up the coast Friday night and showers continuing as
well. Some areas will gradually dry out as the area of rain is
forced eastward.

Rainfall totals will vary greatly from west to east across the
region with the highest totals are expected over the Poconos and
Catskills. WPC and RFC guidance was used for QPF, though some manual
edits were needed over the Catskills region. Combined with moist
soils, the expected rainfall will lead to river and stream flooding
due to runoff. The points that flooded from the most recent event
will likely flood again. A Flood Watch was issued for portions of
CNY and NEPA, mainly for areas along and east of I-81 with the
northern extent ending at Chenango and Otsego Counties. Flash
flooding will not be as much of a concern after this evening as the
showers become more stratiform for the rest of this period. Despite
now being less than a day out, there is still some uncertainty on
the timing of this system and rainfall amounts. Any shift to the
west could lead to more issues than expected.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 40s and 50s. Another cool
day is in store tomorrow as temperatures max out in the 50s during
the day and then fall back into the 40s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update:

Low pressure will track into the Gulf of Maine on Saturday,
which will gradually bring an end to the rain showers from west
to east. Most areas will likely be dry by the afternoon, with
perhaps just a few lingering showers across the Catskills by
that point. Skies will gradually become mostly sunny with high
pressure moving into the area. Highs are expected to be in the
60s.

Skies will remain clear for Saturday night. Clear skies and
relatively light winds will allow for radiational cooling to
occur with low temperatures in the 40s, and perhaps some lows
in the upper 30s across the usual colder spots.

High pressure will be in control for Mother`s Day, which will
bring plenty of sunshine. With still a relatively cool airmass
in place, temperatures will be slightly below normal with highs
expected to be in the 60s once again. Then another cool night is
expected Sunday night with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
250 PM Update:

A building upper level ridge will allow for warmer temperatures
in the long term period with dry weather continuing through
Monday and likely most of Tuesday as well. By Tuesday night into
Wednesday, the next system will approach the area, which will
bring an increasing chance for showers for Wednesday and
Thursday.

In terms of temperatures, highs on Monday are expected to be in
the mid to upper 70s, with upper 70s to lower 80s expected for
highs on Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will also likely have
widespread highs in the 70s, with perhaps some more 80 degree
readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will remain in place at all CNY terminals
throughout this TAF period. AVP should hang onto VFR until late
this evening, though scattered showers in the area may bring
brief restrictions. Overnight, rain will slowly become more
widespread as ceilings fall into IFR and LIFR categories by 09z
Friday. Visibilities will also be reduced due to rain and fog.
There is uncertainty if rain will reach ELM and SYR as some
guidance keep those terminals dry but restrictions are still
expected even if rain does not make it that far west.


Outlook...

Friday Night...Rain showers and associated restrictions though
conditions begin to gradually improve.

Saturday...A chance for lingering rain showers in the morning
with occasional restrictions. Gradual improvement to VFR in the
afternoon.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR; low chance for rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for PAZ039-040-044-047-
     048-072.
NY...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NYZ045-046-055>057-
     062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BTL/ES

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion