000
FXUS61 KBGM 041343
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
943 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain showers and drizzle taper off this morning, with
more seasonable temperatures and skies turning partly sunny for
today. A few showers will be possible Sunday, followed by dry
weather to start the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 am update...
Only minor changes made to the near term forecast to account for
latest observations/radar/satellite imagery. Will likely remain
mostly cloudy through the day across most of the region, but did
add some holes in the clouds in the afternoon...so cannot
completely rule out a few breaks in the clouds.

650 AM Update...

The forecast largely remains on track. With this update, showers
have been added in across the Catskills this afternoon, with
hi-res guidance picking up on some areas of partially clearing
skies there and initiating some convection.

Previous discussion continues below.

Lingering drizzle and rain showers will taper off into the morning
as deep moisture associated with the offshore system continues to
pull away. Additional trace rain accumulations are possible before
showers wrap up. Soundings remain fairly moist at lower levels
through the morning, with patchy fog and low clouds hanging around
before high pressure building in and a push of drier air allows for
more breaks in the clouds through the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s this morning peak in the
50s this afternoon as winds turn light.

Tonight, clouds build back in ahead of an approaching weak cold
front which may touch off a few showers by sunrise. A chance for
showers will continue throughout the day, but with fairly limited
moisture and weak dynamical enhancement, any spotty showers should
be light with mainly trace accumulations. Otherwise, expect a warmer
day compared to Saturday as 850 mb temperatures rise to around 2C to
3C ahead of the cold front. Temperatures starting in the 40s peak
generally in the 50s, but reach as high as the upper 50s and lower
60s across the river valleys. West/northwest winds increase to
around 5 to 10 mph ahead of the front, with some slightly higher
gusts across the higher terrain of central NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet, mainly dry and seasonably mild weather expected this period.

A very weak front will be exiting eastward Sunday night, with a
surface high building in from the Great Lakes. Perhaps a lingering,
light evening rain shower, otherwise drying with decreasing clouds.
Lows dip down into the 30s areawide with light west-northwest winds.

High pressure will be in control of our weather Monday, bringing
more dry weather and mostly sunny skies. It could be a bit breezy,
with northwest winds 7-15 mph. Dry air advecting into the area will
bring dew points down into the upper 20s or low 30s, with minimum
afternoon RH around 30 percent or a little lower for some
locales. It will be mild, as the sunshine boost temperatures
between 55 to 65 for afternoon highs. It looks to remain
generally dry Monday night, but clouds will increase as the
surface high weakens and a disorganized warm frontal wave zips
through. Cannot rule out a sprinkle for parts of NE PA and the
central southern tier...otherwise dry and partly to mostly
cloudy. Lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s. On Tuesday,
another weak disturbance moves by to our south in the fast
northwest flow pattern. Again, could see a light shower or two,
mainly from the Twin Tiers south...but much of the time and area
should remain dry. It`ll be partly sunny across CNY, with more
clouds possible further south across NE PA. Another seasonably
mild day as highs again reach 55 to 65 areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The weather turns much more active and eventually cooler with
several systems moving through the area in the long term.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday, the latest guidance shows a
stronger low moving along the warm/stationary front from the Great
Lakes into our area. Still discrepancies on the exact timing
and track of the low...but it appears a period of steady rain
could develop late Tuesday night, and spread east through the
day on Wednesday. Therefore, went with high chance to low end
likely PoPs for this system. Rainfall amounts are not looking
very heavy from this system...likely between a quarter and
third of an inch. Again, depending on the exact timing the
western half of the forecast area could still dry out and
therefore warm up by the afternoon hours. Basically went with
the NBM temperatures guidance, which gave lows in the upper 30s
to 40s Tuesday night...and highs again mainly 55 to 65.

Brief break in the shower activity Wednesday night, with a
transient ridge moving overhead. Then, the next stronger and
colder system slowly swings through Thursday through Saturday.
The -NAO, blocking pattern favors this slow moving highly
amplifies system moving through the Northeast US during this
timeframe. Exact details remain uncertain as this nearly
vertically stacked low spins through. What is more certain is
that there will be several rounds of showers this period, and
temperatures will really cool down Thursday night into next
weekend. Went below NBM temperature guidance, very close to
Superblend which better captured this trend. As 1000-500mb
thicknesses drop into the 520s, and 850mb temps fall off to at
least -7C some wet snow showers could certainly mix in late
Thursday night, Friday and Friday night. Current forecast lows
Thursday night are in the low to mid-30s...with highs only in
the 40s on Friday....then back down into the upper 20s to mid-
30s Friday night. This about 5 to 8 degrees below average for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 am update...

Moist lower levels continue to keep low ceilings and patchy fog
in the area this morning, with IFR ceilings across the board
for all terminals apart from KAVP, where ceilings are coming in
at around 1100 to 1400. Light showers, drizzle, and patchy fog
also continue to lead to visibility restrictions mainly across
central NY, with MVFR visibility possible at most terminals.
however, KITH continues to come in lower at around a quarter
mile visibility.

Visibility will improve through the morning, with MVFR and IFR
ceilings generally improving to MVFR as ceilings rise to around
1500 to 2500 ft. KAVP should see an increase to VFR into the
late evening. MVFR ceilings hold through the evening elsewhere
with another incoming wave bringing in showers by early Sunday
morning.

     Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR restrictions possible in showers mainly for KRME
and KSYR, otherwise mainly VFR.

Late Sunday through Sunday night...Possible
showers/restrictions.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday through Wednesday...restrictions possible in rain
showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HLC
NEAR TERM...BJT/HLC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...HLC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion