000
FXUS61 KBGM 181612
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1112 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure moving into New England will bring scattered lake
effect snow showers or flurries into the area through Tuesday
morning. Otherwise, generally dry weather expected later Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Another storm system brings mixed
precipitation Wednesday changing to rain showers Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

1110 AM UPDATE...

RADAR shows the main body of light snow moving out of the
northern third of the area at this time. Currents show the light
freezing rain has ended as well. Behind that, just some light
snow showers into the evening so have cancelled the Advisory at
this update. Otherwise, some non diurnal temps today as
readings have dropped behind the cold front over the Finger
Lakes and Northeast PA is getting near it max. Have adjusted the
hourlies to reflect the temperature trend and the precipitation
wrapping up.

645 am update...Complex weather scenario this morning as a
surface low passes directly over the region. Freezing
rain/drizzle is now mainly transitioning back over to light snow
as some subtle mid level moisture arrives and is able to create
better ice crystals aloft. This trend will continue with all
precip changing back to snow or scattered snow showers by mid-
morning...mainly along and north of the NY/PA border. Steadiest
snow this morning remains from about Ithaca--Cortland--Norwich
north, with just snow showers for the S. Tier.

Across NE PA, the measurable precip is basically done. Could
sill see a mixed shower or patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle
through 8 or 9 am...otherwise drying out...and surface
temperatures will gradually warm above freezing by mid morning
as well. Will keep the advisory going for a short while longer
in NE PA as roads may still be slick from earlier snow/ice
accumulations. Rest of the near term forecast remains on track.


400 am update...Will continue the winter weather advisories as
is for now. Main threat will be several inches of snow accumulation
Auburn--Tully--Cazenovia--Cooperstown north, with coating - 2
inches of snow and light icing being the main issue further
south across the NY southern tier and NE PA. Still fine leaving
northern Oneida county out of the advisory...expecting 3-4
inches here...so just below criteria.

Today: Lowered snow amounts across the southern tier of NY and
NE PA, where the accumulating snow is now basically done. A
coating to 2 inches fell here last night. The mid-level dry slot
is now pushing into the area, which has transitioned the steady
snow over to a mix of snow showers, sleet pellets and freezing
drizzle, this will continue through daybreak (south of Penn Yan
--Cortland--Norwich--Cooperstown including NE PA). The main
 remaining threat in this area will be for light coatings of
 ice from freezing rain/drizzle. Temperatures slowly rise above
 freezing by mid-morning across the valley regions of NE PA, and
 thus the winter weather advisory is scheduled to end.
 Additional precipitation amounts will be less than one tenth of
 an inch south of Rte 17/I-86 down into our NE PA counties.

Across the northern portion of our CWA (north of the above
mentioned locations) periods of snow look to continue into the
midday or early afternoon hours (add`l 1-3 inches) bringing the
storm total between 2 to 5 inches by the time the snow ends. The
steady snow looks to move out a little faster than expected
earlier...therefore may be able to drop the winter weather
advisories a bit early.

High temperatures will be reached between 10am and 1pm today:
32-39 in NE PA, 29-34 for the NY S. Tier, and 25-30 for the rest
of central NY. Temperatures begin to slowly fall later in the
afternoon. Variable winds this morning shift northwest 10-20 mph
by afternoon.

Tonight: Cold air advects in behind the system bringing
scattered snow showers on a NW flow downwind of Lake Ontario
and the Finger Lakes. Localized fluffy snow accumulations up to
1 inch (Cayuga, Tompkins, Cortland & Onondaga counties). Mostly
dry and partly cloudy elsewhere. Cold with lows 8-15...except 5
below to 5 above across the Catskills and Oneida county. NW
winds continue overnight but diminish to 6-12 mph. Lowest wind
chills 10 below to 5 above most locations.

Tuesday: Cold northwest flow pattern persist. Scattered lake
effect snow showers and flurries continue, especially in the
morning. Only localized dustings to snow possible in the morning
up near Cortland, Tully, Syracuse etc. Mostly sunny for NE PA,
and becoming partly sunny for most other areas by afternoon.
Cold with highs 20-25 NY, 25-30 NE PA. NW winds 6-12 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM Update

Main concerns in the short term are focused around the winter system
expected to impact the entire region beginning Wednesday in the form
of snow...changing to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain
Wednesday night before going to all rain on Thursday. Amounts
should be on the light side, but could still impact the evening
commute Wednesday and the Thursday morning commute.

High pressure in place Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning
will allow for quiet and cold weather to start the period. Morning
low temperatures Wed will bottom out in the single digits and teens
above zero.

Cloud cover will increase through the morning with the incoming
system from the southwest battling the dry air associated with the
surface high off the coast. May take until around noon before the
precip can reach the ground...but once it does, it should be in the
form of light snow. Upper level low will be moving newd through the
Great Lakes with two associated surface lows. The primary low will
move through the Great Lakes just ahead of the upper trough...and
the secondary low will develop over the mid-Atlantic and lift to the
northeast Wed into Wed night. There should be enough cold air out
ahead of system...combined with enough moisture overrunning the warm
front to produce 1-2 inches of snow by mid to late Wed evening.

A strong push of warm air aloft from the s/sw will overtake the cold
air at the surface and modify thermal profiles enough to produce a
mix of sleet and freezing rain Wed night into Thursday morning. Ice
amounts are expected to range from just a glaze to less than a tenth
of an inch. The bulk of the heavier precipitation is expected to
remain to the se and east of the area. The boundary layer will warm
Thursday morning and allow the wintry mix to change to all rain.
Light rain will slowly move west to east through the day and taper
off into the afternoon. A wedge of drier air...and eventually colder
air...will move in from the w/sw trailing the system, and allow
remaining light rain to eventually transition back to light snow
into the early evening hours.

Temperatures on Thursday will be back into the 40s...with a few
locations possibly touching 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM Update

The cold air will return Thursday night with temperatures falling
back into the 20s...but will be mitigated slightly by the
approaching high pressure expected to bring more sun to the area.
Additional solar radiation will allow temperatures to climb back
into the upper 30s and lower to mid 40s going into the weekend.

The next system will move into the area later Saturday and Sunday
with the potential for daytime rain, and a wintry mix during the
colder overnight time frame. There are still noticeable differences
in the various models at this time...with respect to timing, and
location...so the precip type forecast will likely change now until
then. However, fairly good confidence that another deep low pressure
system will impact the Great Lakes and Northeast...but the details
will need to be ironed out through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly fuel alternate or IFR conditions expected areawide
through at least mid to late morning...with periods of snow
north toward KSYR, KITH and KRME. Further south it will be -shsn
for KELM and KBGM...with just mist or dry weather at KAVP.
Conditions gradually improve back to MVFR by mid to late
afternoon as the -shsn end. Then, should see continued
improvement back to VFR for most sites during the evening hours.
The exception to this may be KBGM and KITH where MVFR CIGs
could linger in a NW flow with a few snow flurries around.

Winds shifting to northwest at 10 kts with front by 15z. Winds
increase to 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts midday and continue
through the afternoon, then slowly decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday into early Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Restrictions likely in snow,
mixed precipitation or rain.

Friday...VFR under high pressure.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MJM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MJM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MJM

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion