000
FXUS61 KBGM 041749
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
149 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep conditions quiet and very warm this
weekend, with just a few isolated showers or thunderstorms
possible this afternoon. A period of hot and humid weather is
expected next week along with generally low chances for some
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11 am update...
Showers have developed in the last hour over mostly Steuben and
Otsego Counties. The cap is broken. There is weak shear, good
low level instability, but limited moisture. Upped pops
especially late this morning.

930 am update...
Just minor changes. Fog and low stratus is gone. Changed max
temperatures up about a degree. Skies now are mostly to partly
sunny. The bulk of the mid clouds will exit southeast. Some
cumulus will form midday and continue into the afternoon. The
pops look good so didn`t change.

previous discussion...
Dry conditions will prevail until this afternoon. Patchy fog
early this morning will dissipate by the mid-morning hours.

After a partly to mostly sunny morning, a few isolated showers
or thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly in the
higher elevations of the NY Susquehanna region and into the
hills of Northeast PA. That being said, without a lifting
mechanism, coverage of any showers/storms will be very limited
and the majority of the area will likely remain dry with mostly
sunny skies. Any lingering convection ends by sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. Highs will likely be in the 80s for
the majority of the area.

High pressure moves into the area tonight, leading to quiet
weather with mostly clear skies. This, along with light winds
will set the stage for patchy valley fog development once again.
Lows will likely be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

High pressure will be in control for Sunday, leading to mostly
sunny skies. A weak wave passing by north of our area may touch
off a brief shower across far northern Oneida county late in the
afternoon, but confidence was not high enough to include in the
forecast. Highs will likely be in the 80s once again, with lower
90s in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build into the region by Monday. The mid-
level ridging should limit the potential for afternoon shower
and thunderstorm activity with the heating of the day. The heat
will be the main story with highs reaching 90 after morning lows
around 60. Still lower humidity so heat index values look to
stay under advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid-level ridging will continue to be in place across our region
throughout this timeframe with surface high pressure. Warm and
moist air will be transported northward as week goes on. Hot and
humid will be general rule with mostly sunny days. However, a
shortwave on Wednesday looks to provide enough of lift for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Only a stray shower or
thunderstorm is likely to occur on other days given the lack of
a lifting. By Friday, modeling is keying on a low pressure
system along the Carolina coastline and cold front to the west
but ensemble guidance has the majority of impacts from either
feature next weekend.

Highs should end up around 90 or in the low 90`s each day with
muggy lows way up into the 60`s and even some low 70`s. As for
the heat index, afternoon heat index values Tuesday through
Friday are currently forecasted from 95-100 each afternoon in
the Southern Tier of NY, Finger lakes and NY thruway corridor.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM update...

Mainly VFR through Sunday. This afternoon a few showers and
maybe a thunderstorm. A small chance that one will get to ELM
with brief vsby restrictions.

Late tonight more river valley fog. With hardly any rain today
think AVP will not have fog or low clouds like this morning. ELM
should have IFR fog from 8 to 12z and maybe as early as 06z.

Sunday will have weak high pressure and clear to partly cloudy
skies.

Winds will be northwest to north at less than 10 knots this
afternoon. Light and variable once again tonight. Sunday west to
northwest at 5 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...mainly VFR with a chance of
brief restrictions due to afternoon shower and thunderstorm
activity. Chance of IFR valley fog at ELM each morning.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/TAC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...TAC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion