000
FXUS61 KBGM 190240
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
940 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures drop this evening and then slowly rise by
Wednesday morning. A clipper system will bring light snow to
the region through Wednesday night. Another blast of Arctic air
looks to come into the area Thursday and Friday before more
seasonal temperatures this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM Update..
Temperatures have been lowered significantly across the western
Finger Lakes as well as down into the Catskills where the clear
skies will persist a few more hours. Many locations are already
below the forecasted low and the NBM 10th percentile so the new
lows were interpolated off of the current trends. Clouds will
move in over the next few hours and as warm air advection
strengthens through the night a slow warming trend is still
expected after midnight.

630 PM Update...
Little change to the forecast from this afternoon. Watching
temperatures where the skies are clear to adjust lows down if
need be.

250 PM update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the ending
light lake effect snow showers this afternoon, followed by cold
temperatures this evening then gradual warming the rest of the
night with light snow along a warm front across the north mixing
with some rain during the day Wed before some post-frontal snow
showers Wed night.

Upper trough to the northeast continues to exit off the coast
of Maine this afternoon with a persistent, cold
west/northwesterly flow off of Lake Ontario keeping a shallow
layer of clouds and weak lake induced snow showers/flurries in
the area. The dry air is finally starting to overtake the
boundary layer and most of the snow has come to an end, or will
end in the next couple hours. The 850mb ridge axis is still to
the west and will push through before 5 pm this evening. This
ridging aloft will combine with the dry air mass to keep weather
conditions quiet tonight. Some clearing of the clouds this
evening will lead to a period of radiational cooling that will
drop temperatures into the teens and single digits. However, in
response to the ridge building through and the development of a
southwesterly flow, weak warm air advection will begin after
midnight, which will keep temperatures steady or gradually rise
through the early morning hours.

Temperatures will likely already be in the upper teens and mid
to upper 20s by 7 am Wednesday. A warm front extending from an
area of low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will be
nudging into parts of n-central NY/eastern Great Lakes. Some
light snow showers will likely be moving in along and north of
the NY Thruway during the morning. The challenge with the
forecast tomorrow will be the temperatures and the resulting
p-types. Have continued to lead toward a colder solution given
the relatively deep snow-pack...although there are still many
places that will see high temperatures into the mid to upper
30s. Elevations above 1400 ft should remain below freezing
through the day. Most of the precipitation...although
light...will be in the form of snow

A trailing cold front will sweep through late Wed and Wed night
with the start of some lake effect snow showers across the
northern counties. At this time snow amounts Wed and Wed night
should be generally an inch or less for most locations. The
exception could be the southern Tug Hill plateau where as much
as 3 inches is possible.

Temperatures Wednesday night will be able to fall into the
teens and single digits in NY...and into the upper teens and
lower 20s in ne PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
250 PM Update...

To start the day on Thursday, a weak wave passes along the backside
of the front that will have passed through the region by Thursday
morning. This weak system could trigger some light accumulating snow
across the southern portions of the Wyoming Valley and Poconos.
Snowfall totals under a half of an inch are expected. There does
remain some uncertainty with this system as models like the ECMWF
keep any precipitation out of the area. Lake effect snow will also
develop across portions of the Finger Lakes region with the help of
colder air and northwesterly low-level flow. Elsewhere, high
pressure will build into the region, bringing dry conditions to the
rest of the region and help push that weak wave out of the southern
portion of our area. An Arctic air mass begins to dip south Thursday
so temperatures will be in the teens and low 20s across CNY with
warmer temps of mid to upper 20s across NEPA and the Catskills.

The lake effect snow will taper off during the overnight hours.
Model guidance has low QPF totals and the set up does not look great
for much accumulation. Forecasted snowfall totals are less than an
inch, though locally higher amounts around an inch will be possible.
The Arctic air mass will bring temperatures down below zero across a
good portion of the region Thursday night. Some will be lucky
enough to observe positive single digits, but when that cold,
it will not feel any different than the negatives. As mentioned
in the HWO, wind chills will range anywhere from -5 to -20F
Thursday night and into Friday morning. Winds are forecasted to
be light. If guidance changes and winds increase, then wind
chill headlines might be needed in the future.

Dry conditions are expected for Friday with high pressure in place
and the coldest air begins to retreat northward. However, it will
remain cold with temperatures getting into the teens for highs.
Temperatures Friday night will once again fall to the single digits
on either side of zero, though a little warmer than what is expected
Thursday night. Wind chills will be 0 to -10F during the overnight
and into Saturday morning. Again, winds will be fairly light.

Models do have a coastal system developing late Friday night/early
Saturday morning. There will also be an upper level trough extending
across the eastern Great Lakes region. The location of these
features will determine if our region will be clipped by the coastal
system or not. Most model guidance has these features far enough
east which would result in most not seeing anything. There is still
some guidance, like the ECMWF, that brings the coast system far
enough inland to carry a slight chance over NEPA and Catskills for
Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 PM Update...

There is a slight chance forecasted across most of the region
Saturday based on NBM guidance. However, models are trending drier
with the coastal system now more eastward and a ridge of high
pressure passing through during the first half of the weekend. Based
on this, the region should remain dry. A broad upper level trough
moves over the region Sunday and will be embedded with a couple of
shortwaves. The first could bring light snow showers across CNY
Sunday and into Sunday night. Then lake effect snow develops Monday
over the Finger Lakes and into the Tug Hill Plateau and Wyoming
Valley. Lake effect snow comes to an end by the end of the day
Monday. Another cold air mass drops south with this trough so not
much of a warm up is expected. Highs will be in the 20s and lows
will be in the single digits and low teens.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through Thursday morning then ceilings gradually lowering to
MVFR except at KAVP. LLWS also expected overnight with a timing
of roughly 08-16Z from the southwest. LLWS decreases as wind
gusts increase at the surface from 15-25 knots in afternoon
starting off more southerly then becoming more westerly by the
end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Thursday...Restrictions in lake effect
snow showers and low clouds, mostly over NY.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Restrictions possibly across central NY terminals in
lake effect snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJT
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MWG

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion

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