FXUS61 KBGM 232341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
741 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

High pressure will reside over the region through tonight only
gradually increasing clouds. Clouds will continue to increase
through the day on Tuesday with a low pressure system that will
bring periods of rain late Tuesday through the middle of the
week. Expect generally dry and seasonable weather Thursday night
and Friday.


730 pm Update...
A little cirrus was heading north but the night will feature
mainly clear skies and chilly temperatures but milder than last
few mornings due to southerly winds. Some protected valleys east
of Binghamton will likely de-couple and see temperatures back
down to the upper 20s and lower 30s Tuesday am. Rest of
forecast area will see minimums in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Didn`t make any significant changes to previous forecast.

330 PM Update...

Clear skies and warm temperatures will be the
rule for the rest of this afternoon and early evening as high
pressure remains firmly in control of our weather. Few to
scattered cirrus clouds move in from the south late this evening
and into the overnight period. With clear skies and light south
winds expect temperatures to fall off rather quickly after
sunset this evening..but likely not as cold as yesterday
evening. Temperatures should begin to level off, holding fairly
steady late tonight as clouds and moisture increase. Overnight
lows will be in the mid-30s to lower 40s areawide.

Tuesday starts off mostly cloudy in NE PA and partly cloudy
across Central NY. Clouds continue to increase from south to
north through the morning hours...so that by midday or early
afternoon the entire CWA should be mostly cloudy. Conditions
will stay dry through the morning hours. Then, a slight chance
to chance of showers will slowly move into our forecast area
from the southwest. With a dry ridge of high pressure still
hanging on over the far eastern portion of the forecast area
expect the northeastward progress of the rain showers to be
very slow...reaching the I-81 corridor by around 5-8 PM.
Rainfall amounts during the day on Tuesday are looking very
light, with just a few hundredths of an inch from I-81
west...especially in Steuben, Bradford and Luzerne counties.
Temperatures remain mild, but slightly cooler then today. Highs
will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s.


330 PM Update...

Very little change to the short term forecast period, as it
still looks unsettled and wet.

Rain will continue to overspread the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a short wave passing through the Great Lakes phases
with a cut-off upper low moving from the srn Appalachian Mtns
newd to near NJ. A weak surface low associated with this system
will track out ahead of the upper low from the Carolinas to the
New England coast. A push of warm moist air northward ahead of
the low will prime the air mass for widespread rain showers into
Wednesday. The most favorable period for moderate rain will be
during the day Wednesday with the sfc low near the Delmarva
peninsula resulting in tight thermal packing within a moderate
baroclinic zone lifting north through ern PA and east-central
NY. The development of a weak-mdt layer of mid lvl f-gen should
be enough to enhance precipitation efficiency during the late
morning and afternoon hours on Wednesday. Guidance is hinting at
some marginal instability over the far southeastern portion of
our CWA, but not enough confidence to add any thunder into the
forecast at this time. Rainfall amts from Tue night through
Wednesday should range from 0.5 to 1 inch...with locally higher
amts in the elevated regions of the Poconos and Catskills.

Temperatures will remain fairly mild Tuesday night and Wednesday with
highs in the 50s to near 60 and lows in the 40s.


300 pm update...

Start of the period cold rain on back side of surface low and
upper level trough in eastern NY. The rain and low lift
northeast Wednesday night and Thursday. Rain may continue into
Thursday night in the far northeast. Temperatures at low levels
stay above freezing so precipitation should remain as rain.
Cooler highs Thursday in the 50s under the trough and with
neutral advection. Lows Thursday night in the mid and upper 30s.

Weak ridging aloft and weak surface high on Friday before the
next system approaches Friday night. The weekend system a cold
front and narrow but deep upper level trough moving in from the
west. Ahead of this is a coastal that stays well east of the
area. Rainfall amounts look light centered on the daytime
Saturday. Highs in the 50s Saturday. Sunday a large surface
high and upper level ridging moves in with dry mild air. The
high moves to the coast Monday but the region stays dry. Highs
in the 50s Sunday rise to the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday.


VFR conditions will prevail through the terminal period with
high confidence. Cirrus clouds from approaching system from
southwest of NY and Pa will overspread terminals later tonight
and Tuesday morning. In our southern / western terminals VFR
mid clouds will arrive between 22z and 00z Wednesday. We do
expect a little rain at KELM before 00Z Wednesday from a lower VFR
overcast layer. We also expect a lower VFR layer to arrive at
KAVP at 23z.

Winds will be light southerly overnight and between 5 and 12
knots with gusts 15 to 22 knots Tuesday late morning/afternoon.


Tuesday evening...Rain developing with some restrictions
possible toward sunset. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Some restrictions likely with
rain showers. High confidence.

Thursday night and Friday...Generally VFR. Moderate confidence.

Friday night and Saturday...Some restrictions possible with rain
showers. Lower confidence.





NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion

Random Fact

Weather Terms

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - A severe thunderstorm is indicated by Doppler radar or sighted by skywarn spotters. A severe thunderstorm contains large damaging hail, 1 inch diameter or larger, and/or damaging winds of around 60 mph or greater. These warnings are issued on a county by county basis by the local Weather Forecast Office.