000
FXUS61 KBGM 061511
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1011 AM EST MON FEB 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN TOPPING 50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RESULTING
IN CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND SPOTTY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SKIM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
WITH FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...JUST A TINY BIT OF STRATOCUMULUS IS HANGING ON TO
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THIS WILL SOON ERADICATE TO JOIN THE REST
OF THE AREA IN WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE TODAY...COURTESY OF STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION/SOUTHWEST FLOW. UPDATED FOR THE DETAILS OF THE
SKY GRID...AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MIXING EXPECTED. MIXING WILL OCCUR TO ABOUT THE 900
MB LEVEL...AND MIXING DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM THAT LEVEL REVEALS
MOSTLY 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE...BUT SOME OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD ECLIPSE 50 DEGREES. GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE
COMMON DURING PEAK MIXING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARING OUT
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THERE WAS STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION THAT WAS
DYNAMICALLY FORCING THIS FRONT SOUTH...BUT THERE REALLY WAS NOT
ENOUGH DEEP LIFTING OR MOISTURE FOR NEW YORK OR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE FRONT PASSES SOUTH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. IN FACT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL BE SHALLOW IN NATURE WHICH GOES ALONG WELL WITH THE LACK OF
STRONG GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS IN THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE
NAM12 AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW A STRONG INVERSION LAYER
FROM ARND 875 TO 850 MB IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO BETWEEN 850
AND 825 MB IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL MODELS SHOW A LAYER OF
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH IS CLASSIC COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS SO TYPICAL OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA IN WINTER. SO I UPPED SKY COVER IN GRIDS FROM PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO GO ALONG WITH THE 90 PERCENT PLUS 850
MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS BEHIND THIS
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS WILL LAST INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EVEN COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
SOUTHWARD LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
LIFTING AND UPSLOPING FROM THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN TO THE HILLS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OR EVEN SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE TOPS OF THE CLOUDS AT
THE BASE OF THE INVERSION WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ICE CRYSTAL
PRODUCTION...RUNNING -6C TO -8C MOST AREAS...AND -10C FOR A SHORT
TIME IN NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AFTER THE FRONT PASSES LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
SUBSIDENCE AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN ADDITION TO SOME CONVECTIVE
MIXING SHOULD BREAK UP THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER TO A CUMULUS LAYER
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA. BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE CUMULUS LAYER SHOULD
COLLAPSE LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK
WITH LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS IN PENNSYLVANIA WHICH IS FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
NARROWING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS
INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM...GFS...CMC AND EURO SHOW THAT THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL TRACK EAST
AND SHEAR OUT UNDER THE DEVELOPING POLAR VORTEX OVER EASTERN
CANADA. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
AND GRAZE NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST FLURRIES. QPF AMOUNTS ON ALL THE MODELS ARE
LESS THAN .1 INCH. SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS FEATURE. THERE STILL IS SOME TIMING AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE EURO BEING THE
STRONGEST...SLOWEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE. THE NAM
IS THE WEAKEST AND QUICKEST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SLGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS IN NORTHEAST PA FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AND ALSO WILL MESH
IN WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS MIDDLE ATLANTIC SHORT WAVE PASSES TO
THE EAST AND ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WITH DRIER AIR AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...NOT TOO MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
I DID LOWER TEMPS INTO THE 20S FOR SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE EURO
AND GFS SHOWING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR. EVEN THE WARMER 925
TEMPS OF THE EURO OF -10C TO -14C...WOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS
HOLDING IN THE 20S. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...DESPITE CHILLY
AIR...A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE FETCH AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP OUR
AREA DRY. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...


UPDATED AS OF 330 PM SUN... AGAIN...NOT MUCH CHG
TO THE LARGE- SCALE PATTERN SEEN WITH THE MODELS TODAY.
EC/ENSEMBLE/HPC CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT A VORTEX WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE NEAR HUDSON`S BAY...WITH UPPER-LVL RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL KEEP FAST MOVG NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES COMING ACRS NY/PA ABT EVERY 24-48 HRS...IT WILL ALSO
KEEP THE GOMEX CUT OFF. THIS FACTOR...IN COMBINATION WITH A LACK
OF SUSTAINED HI-LAT BLOCKING BRIDGING ALL THE WAY ACRS THE N
ATLANTIC...SHOULD KEEP ANY MAJOR STORMS/HVY PCPN EVENTS FROM
IMPACTING OUR FA THIS PD. ALSO...GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW
COVER...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN N OF THE CANADA/U.S. BORDER...TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABV SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY TO MID FEB.

DAILY WX-WISE...A FAST MOVG UPPER-LVL TROUGH/SFC WAVE ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO UNDERCUT THE ABV MENTIONED ERN CANADIAN VORTEX AND TRACK
THROUGH THE MID-ATL RGN WED...EXITING THE COAST AT NIGHT. A SHOT
OF LGT SNOW COULD WELL IMPACT NE PA INTO THE SRN TIER...ALTHOUGH THE
NRN EXTENT OF THE PCPN REMAINS A LTL QUESTIONABLE ATTM. BOTTOM LN
     THIS SYSTEM SHOULDN`T HAVE TIME TO PICK UP MUCH MOIST...SO
AGN ANY SNOW LOOKS QUITE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE (FROM THU THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...QUICK MOVG IMPULSES IN THE
NRN STREAM WILL REINFORCE POLAR ORIGIN AIR MASSES (HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S). THE BEST
DEFINED FRNTL BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH FRI NGT INTO
SAT...WITH AT LEAST SCTD -SHSN ANTICIPATED.
OVERALL...THOUGH...THESE AIR MASSES LOOK INSUFFICIENTLY COLD/MOIST
TO GENERATE MUCH OF A LAKE RESPONSE...SO JUST OCNL FLRYS/-SHSN
WILL BE CALLED FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
645 AM UPDATE...

MVFR CIGS PERSIST AT KRME THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT BY
05Z...THE CENTRAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z...AND KAVP TOWARD
12Z. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE (FREEZING) OR FLURRIES MAY ALSO PRODUCE
MVFR VSBYS AFTER 08Z ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 16Z. BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z...GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 22Z AND REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND MAY GRADUALLY VEER MORE TOWARD THE WEST OR
EVEN NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY FAR NORTH. WITH SURFACE WINDS
DIMINISHING AND A LLJ AROUND 2,000 FEET OF AROUND 40 KTS...I ADDED
LLWS TO KSYR AND KRME.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE- TUE NGT...VFR...WITH PSBL MVFR IN LAKE-EFFECT SHSN.

WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING...IN LGT
SNOW.

THU AND FRI...VFR/MVFR PSBL IN LGT SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN

NWS bgm Office Area Forecast Discussion