FXUS61 KBGM 182327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
727 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Showers and thunderstorms will linger into this evening,
followed by cooler and drier air. Tuesday will be dry, and
it will be cooler through midweek.


610 PM Update...threat of severe thunderstorms has diminished
as the air mass is well worked over, and it`s unlikely to
destabilize again. Have dropped the Watch and updated the grids
to reflect this. Will let the Heat Advisory die a natural death
in a couple hours. As some urban areas are still quite warm
despite the rain and cooler air moving in.

2 pm update... As expected, convection is firing early this
afternoon, within a very unstable environment (ML CAPE 1500-2500
j/kg). Given that the deep-layered shear and forced lift is
better across upstate NY and southern Ontario in the near-term,
a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued across our northern
Finger Lakes, Mohawk Valley, and southern Tug Hill zones. In
these areas, strong winds are the primary threat, with steep
low-level lapse rates and enhanced DCAPE.

Going into this evening, as the surface front and main upper-
level short-wave approach, convective coverage should increase,
with the primary threats shifting from strong winds to heavy
rainfall. An anomalously moist air mass is still anticipated
(precipitable water values at or above 2.2"), with the potential
for repeat cell development. The limiting factor appears to be
overall system progression, despite prevailing deep-layered flow
becoming parallel to frontal orientation. If confidence
increases in heavy rainfall over a more targeted area, a Flash
Flood Watch could later be issued. At this time, we lack the
confidence to issue such a product. Heavy convective rainfall
potential will be closely watched through the evening hours.

Later tonight into the pre-dawn period, the threat for showers
and storms should diminish from north-south, as the surface
front pushes southward, and a drier/more stable air mass
overspreads CNY/NEPA.


210 pm update... Tuesday continues to look like a fine early
Summer day, with a dry air mass and sinking motion regime taking
up residency over CNY/NEPA.

A fair amount of sun is anticipated, with much lower humidity
values, and afternoon highs only in the 70s-lower 80s.


Tuesday Night and Wednesday: Several waves of low pressure will
travel along a cold front located to our south. Clouds are
expected to increase Tuesday night ahead of these features.
Modeling is painting a fairly consistent picture as well for
some showers to move through NE PA on Wednesday so this forecast
maintains the possibility. Two meter temperatures off the
operational models  suggest cloud cover keep temperatures lower
than forecasted. However, we suspect enough daytime heating to
get temperatures much closer to that the MET/MAV guidance with
most locations getting into the 70`s with morning lows Wednesday
in the upper 40`s to low 50`s.

Wednesday night through the weekend:

A reinforcing high pressure center drops out of east- central
Canada on Wednesday night, which is likely to force the frontal
boundary well to our south with no further shower, or
thunderstorm problems through Friday. Seasonable, to slightly
under the average June temperatures are expected during this
time. A more pronounced low pressure area is forecast to lift
out of the Plains states and into the Northeast this weekend.
Influence from the leading warm front should be reaching
CNY/NEPA by early Saturday morning, but there are timing
differences among the big 3 models at this range. Isentropic
lift may bring some leading showers in during the morning, but
will lean with the better chances for storms in the afternoon
after some heating. General slow movement of this system will
keep conditions unsettled through Sunday with the cold front
expected to swing through from Sunday-Sunday night. Temperatures
in the upper 70s to low 80s during the day with 50s-60s at



Leftover convection may bring some occasional MVFR conditions to
the sites this evening, but the overall trend will be for higher
ceilings and visibilities as drier air works in behind the cold
front. VFR continues through the end of the period as high
pressure builds in.


Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, though a small chance
for showers/brief restrictions is possible on Wednesday.


High temperatures are expected today to fall a few degrees
below records at all three climate sites. The forecasted high at
Avoca is 92 where the record is 93 set back in 1994. At
Binghamton, the record is 92 set back in 1957 and at Syracuse
the record is 96 set back in 1957. High temperatures at
Binghamton and Syracuse are forecasted to be around 90.


PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ038>040-043-
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ009-015>018-



NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion

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